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All you have to do to be successful is follow the advice you give to others. — The Scottish Rite Torch.
WEEDING OUT THE TRASH
During a daily course of market review we produce a number of computer studies to supplement our
chart and fundamental rumor collection. These daily studies are augmented by a more thorough weekly look at the past price movement over a great length of time. Apart from other webmasters, who buy backlinks to build their link profile to get more traffic from the search engines, they will comment on blogs and forums in order to attain more backlinks for their site. From this weekly detail review of historical daily land weekly) price change we determine which markets are in an advantageous trading position. For example, in the commodities markets we generally analyze 26 contracts and 10 associated cash markets by first studying 14 perpetual contracts. In a future article we will further explain the derivation of this type of 'perpetual' contract concept (Ref: Commodities, Mar 83, p. 72). From these 14 contracts we are able to filter down to 5 or 6 that appear to be in 'advantageous trading positions'.
COTTON
Late June 1982 on the weekend of the 26th our weekly review threw Cotton #2 onto our trading list. An eight cent per pound ($4000 per contract) Bull market move started on about Monday June 21st and held for nine days with prices moving straight up. This move was proclaimed by a relative strength index (RSI) divergence relative to the price picture (refer to Figure 1 and Figure 4 Divergence) and a Slow 8 day Stochastic study divergence and crossover (at point 1 on Figure 5). The use of 8 days in a Slow Stochastic study was suggested by one of our subscribers as being a fair general purpose longer (slow) term factor. In the past we had been using a (normal) Stochastic study with weekly data to confirm that a daily Stochastic signal was not overreating (so we would not as well). Since a Slow Stochastic study is a three day moving average of the 'normal' Stochastic study an 8 day Slow Stochastic study is half way to being analogous to a 'normal' stochastic using weekly data. Without this sort of longer term trend check, Stochastic will whip you in and out of the market indifferent to the major trend. Although this may prove profitable, it will have an inclination to be less so than if one only traded with the major move. Using a trading system can help achieve more profits in the markets, by outperforming all the mutual funds using good technical analysis.
Let us digress a little bit and discuss this thing we call Stochastic. In a large dictionary or textbook about statistical probability the word 'stochastic' is used to mean something that is independent on the outcome of a random proceeding or process. The 'Stochastic Process' by CompuTrac is a method of visually representing the past market closes relative to their ranges. This seemingly aimless random course is often very predictable (Figure 5). It can sometimes be noted that a 'Stochastic' chart will build very pronounced formations (emphasis on divergence from price) that herald an impending market price swing. Figure 5 at point 1 is a good example of Stochastic divergence from the actual price bar chart in Figure 1. With a little practice you will soon be able to identify other reoccurring formations in Stochastic charts (Ref: Technical Analysis, Oct 82, pg 6).
If one could always be able to spend the required time to review the markets, as I suppose one should, we could have traded Cotton long on Monday June 21 based on two somewhat unrelated technical indicators; Stochastic and Relative Strength divergence. But, our weekend weekly review did not point to Cotton until after half the move had progressed. This can be a little frustrating but, need not be the end of
the game. Now that our eyes are on Cotton let us look for an upcoming resting place for us to enter a long trade or signs of a bull market failure.
On July 1 the fundamentals of Cotton may have run their course. The first delivery day of July Cotton was the first of the month. The quick eight cent price rise seemed to have paused and very probably this set the bulls in a cautious frame of mind, tight stops had been hit and profit taking became more common. I think Edwards & Magee would start to call this market in consolidation.
If you do not have the book, "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee, get it, it may be the best book on chart formations ever written. I have a copy of the twelfth printing of the fifth edition, it is a timeless work of market observation. There is more on why a market chart formation may have occurred in this one book than any other published work we know of. Also, there is a Commodity newsletter that is said ''to be based on Edwards & Magee'' called 'The Factor'.
CONSOLIDATION
For a period of three weeks after the first of July Cotton moved sideways in price (See Figure 1). In Figure 3 we see that a Swing Index plot (Ref. New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems by J. Welles Wilder Jr. pg 87) has gone into hiatus and the upward bull may have lost his nerve. Using forex trading signals will help you achieve this. The Swing Index is an attempt at defining a "REAL'' best price line based only on the last two days Open, High, Low and Close prices. With this in mind the Swing Index can be used to clarify an otherwise unclear price shift. The Swing Index shows us that, though July 23, the price of Cotton was holding up in a very shallow upwards trend or at least sideways. Three weeks is a long time to watch something do nothing, but with a little research one can find ample justification to suspect a trade in the making. Cotton has just recently made a number of nice moves up and down that would have returned a sizable return. The longer one of these sideways moves lasts the more it seems likely to invite an up or down move with some follow through.
Now that I have got myself in a holding pattern over Cotton and have decided that a price change is in the making, I need a signal. Figure 2 shows a plot of a 20 day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) (Re: Donald R. Lambert in COMMODITIES, Oct 80, pg. 40-41 — formula modified by CompuTrac) used as a breakout indicator. If the zero line is crossed that implies that the days "typical'' price
PRICE= H+L+C 3

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has wandered across the equilibrium point of a 20 day "Channel" of past price distribution. Thus the index follows the market constantly forming a channel centered on the past few days price dispersion. A crossing of the zero line signifies that the market may be changing direction. If the Commodity Channel Index stops and reverses at the zero line this could denote a resurgence of the old trend.
TRADING RATIONAL
Assuming that this sideways market will act like other temporary consolidation markets and be followed by a sizable breakout; we may look to the Channel Index for a signal. There seems to be one other caution that would be wise to keep in mind. The zero line of the Index is an equilibrim point, so it should be thought of as a pause in price (i.e. a resting location). If you lean back in your chair there is a point where you may balance on the verge of falling backwards or forwards. Think of the zero line in this context and think of the slope of the Index line as your rocking chair speed or momentum. If the market
approaches the zero line at a great slope (speed) then it is likely that its momentum will carry through the zero line and signify a trend change. For an example of another application of using the CCI in a non-sideways market or a more conservative approach to market entry see Technical Analysis Oct 82 pg 6.
In this case (cotton #2) the market broke down, not what I expected, and a trade was signaled for a short position on July 27. For the weak at heart this would be a 4 cent move ($2000/contract) and for the man (person) of steel almost 9 cents ($5000/contract).
While I have your attention, look at Figure 6. The figure shows an oscillator of two moving averages, a 1 day and 57 day. The 1 day is just itself and the 57 day length was found by observing a 57 day cycle peak using our Fourier Analysis (STUDY.30) from Technical Analysis, Jan 83, pg 5. This technique of using a 1 day average in an oscillator may be used to detrend data about a known cycle and saving the results for further study or printing. Figure 6 is interesting in that a 57 day detrend of Cotton seems to fit the data quite well. One of our subscribers has noted that with the judicious use of two oscillators (1:13 and 4:18) redrawn as two single lines crossing, by use of a matrix redraw, he was able to see some clear buy sell signals at the crossovers.

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